Black Swans and “Color” Theory: Unknown Unknowns in Consumer Evolution

Andrea Falls, Atlanta

As a start, a brief revisit of a quote that many call cringe-worthy but I actually feel has great relevance to Consumer Marketing 2011:

“[T]here are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.”
—Former United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld

Worldwide events of late are stretching our definitions of “unknown unknowns” and made me think a bit about the story behind Black Swan Theory.  Natalie Portman aside, the Black Swan with Rumsfeld-quote-relevance describes an “event [that is] a surprise to the observer and has major impact” and, importantly, “after its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected.”  In 16^th century British Empire, all swans were believed to be birds with white feathers (because all observed swans were in fact white), until a Dutch expedition to Western Australia revealed the existence of black swans.  

To me, the potential of Black Swans is a new constant in the discussion of consumer behavior.  There’s a new innovation, application or conversation on every corner that can prove the possibility of the impossibility in traditional marketing terms.

Case in point:  dozens of stories are popping up everywhere about the next game changer in consumer social media:  the “instant group photo sharing” promise of Color.  Touting $41 million in funding, the Bill Nguyen-led application (now for iphone users and soon for Android) allows you to share photos taken with others in a 150 foot radius.  That’s if you know the people around you or not.  Think concert footage, real-time news events, visual stories now told from the perspectives of many at once. 

The example used to illustrate Color is the wedding reception scenario of years past with disposable camera on each table, allowing the bride and groom to see family and friend perspectives from the big day that no one person could capture or communicate.  Color could take this mutli-eye-view of life into the social realm, “sharing” moments in ways that could redefine how we think about visual communications ongoing. 

What Black Swans could we see “in Color” after its sparking of unknown unknowns?  Resurgence and re-casting of role of photo journalism; next wave of privacy dialog, possibly offset by self-policing inappropriate shares driven by fear of photo retribution; the rise of the “personal paparazzi?”

I say this not in anxiety about the advancement, just the opposite.  It’s just important to think about the next big “what we didn’t know” now -- and the ways the potential and the predictive should weave into our real-time thinking.  Imagine what “Color”-ful options this can mean for consumer expression:  whether Color is the next big thing or not, surely the idea of your world “view” becoming sharable and social is powerful.    Imaging the ramifications for media outlets, for data visualization, for consumer opinion research and more …